Businesses warn that plan could harm economy, worsen skills shortage
Coalition leader Peter Dutton has pledged to cut Australia's net overseas migration by 100,000 if they win the upcoming election.
Dutton has confirmed that his government remains committed to slashing net overseas migration after reports last year that he would back away from the plan.
"We can reduce the NOM by 100,000," Dutton said. "[It will happen] straight away, once we get into government, we can deal with Labor's mess."
Australia's net overseas migration (NOM) is the difference between the number of people immigrating to and emigrating from the country.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that NOM in 2023-24 was 446,000, down from the 536,000 a year earlier.
According to the ABS, this is the first decrease in NOM since the border restrictions were lifted. It follows a period of NOM increase due to the pent-up demand for arrivals following almost two years of border restrictions during the pandemic.
[Insert image: Net overseas migration]
The Federal Budget 2025-26 estimates that NOM will further go down to 260,000, which Dutton said they plan to further cut by 100,000 in a bid to solve Australia's hiring crisis.
"From the figure that we are bequeathed when we come into government, the figure that it is when we change government, we can reduce it by 100,000 – that's our position," he said.
Dutton's plan to reduce NOM in the country raised warnings from the Business Council of Australia (BCA).
BCA chief executive Bran Black told The Guardian that slashing NOM numbers would have consequences for Australia.
"These proposals [capping international student numbers and cutting Nom] could negatively impact our economy, compound our existing skills shortages and make it harder to invest in new projects and grow businesses," Black said as quoted by the news outlet.
"Australia's migration programme should be geared towards helping address our growing skills shortages and backing in our international education sector as the country's fourth largest export."
But Dutton said he was not worried about business backlash on his plan.
"I'm not worried about that. I've got the first and foremost interest in mind and that is to get young Australians into housing," the Coalition leader said.
But the ACTU said the problem with Australia's housing issues is housing supply.
"If we want to address housing shortages — as we must — we need to urgently focus on supply measures, including supporting local infrastructure development, incentivising states to reform planning processes, reducing corruption risk, and placing a greater emphasis on attracting skilled workers to the construction industry," Black said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke warned that Dutton's plan involved "savage cuts." The official said the projected 2025-26 drop is already a reduction of 120,000 from the latest data.
"Is Peter Dutton proposing to cut Nom by less than the government is proposing?" Burke said.
"Or is he sticking with his 160,000 overall [NOM] target, which would require savage cuts to the people we need with the skills to build homes, work in aged care and keep our tourism industry going."
KPMG the potential impact of reducing net overseas migration may not be immediately known.
"The government has flagged its intention to stabilise net overseas migration after a period of post-pandemic increases, whilst maintaining the government's stated priority of supporting business access to skilled labour," it said in an insight.
"The impact of a reduction in net overseas migration will not be fully known until further details are released by the government on migration program planning levels, which is expected after the upcoming federal election."
