A bird flu pandemic simulation involving government ministers, CEOs and United Nations officials has found that typical disaster response plans will fail
A BIRD flu pandemic simulation involving government ministers, CEOs and United Nations officials has found that typical disaster response plans will fail.
The simulation took place at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in January and involved more than 30 participants. The simulation began on day 28 of an influenza pandemic in Germany, against a backdrop of inundated hospitals, failed supply chains, closed schools and an almost complete halt of everyday life.
The findings, released recently, make for worrying reading. Participants said that it is essential to develop contingency plans that can respond to the collapse of society and the economy. “The economic, health and social consequences of an influenza pandemic could be devastating if effective and coordinated preparedness activities and timely response actions are not undertaken,” said the report on the simulation, which was facilitated by Booz Allen Hamilton. “Governments and businesses will face tough, practical, moral and ethical decisions as they enter a world where not all sections of society are equal, where infrastructure is debilitated, and where irresponsible behaviour may emerge as a consequence.”
Participants in the simulation were split into four groups to simulate the roles of government, healthcare, business and international organisations. The government group did not shut down airports or close borders, and allocated dwindling treatment for influenza to health workers and security forces. It also imposed martial law and the conscription of individuals to support healthcare services was introduced along with the nationalisation of food and water supplies.
The healthcare team, meanwhile, focused on communication with the public and care for the very sick. It also identified the lack of a rapid influenza diagnostic system.
The business team said its first priority was the protection of employees and their families and acknowledged that it would have to provide essential employee with food and care as the government’s priorities would lie elsewhere. Business expected to maintain only critical supplies and services, but said a major challenge would be securing data and files while ‘hibernating’ the business until the pandemic had passed.
The international organisations group, which included the United Nations, the World Health Organisations and the European Union, said their initial focus would be on collecting information and coordinating response. It also expected to focus on developing countries whose systems would likely collapse first. The ongoing focus would be on securing and assigning humanitarian workers, additional healthcare facilities and medical supplies.
Participants said the simulation painted a “pretty bad picture”. Workforce shortages, supply-chain disruptions and panic could overwhelm both the private and public sectors unless comprehensive plans are put in place, Booz Allen Hamilton said.
