Canada to see 8.1 million job openings by 2033: ESDC report

At the same time, Canada’s workforce is expected to grow by 8.2 million new job seekers, primarily driven by school graduates (5.9 million) and immigrants (2.6 million). However, even with increased immigration, retirements will continue to drive workforce shortages in several key industries.

The federal government also pinpoints different trends among different industries:

• Most of the occupations that will see labour shortages were already showing signs of shortages over the 2021-2023 period. For example, Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses will continue to face a strong risk of shortages over the projection period.
• 10 of the 109 that were showing signs of shortages over the 2021-2023 period are expected to return to more balanced labour markets over the long term. For example, after showing moderate signs of shortages post-pandemic, Food service supervisors are expected to return to balanced conditions over the 2024-2033 period.
• Four new occupations are expected to face risks of shortages, with projected new job openings substantially outpacing projected new job seekers. For instance, home building and renovation managers were found to be in relative balance over the period 2021-2023, but are expected to be at risk of facing shortages over the 2024-2033 projection period.
• Note that occupations with risks of facing shortage conditions over the projection period are concentrated in health; natural and applied sciences related occupations; as well as some in construction and transportation.
• Finally, 17 occupations were found to be at risk to face surpluses, mostly related to related to art, culture, recreation and sport.

Ontario is expected to need 20,700 additional nurses by 2027, and 33,200 by 2032, according to a report from The Canadian Press (CP). Meanwhile, B.C.’s construction industry needs to recruit 52,600 additional workers between 2022 and 2032 to keep pace with labour demands and avoid a deficit of 18,700 construction workers.

Also, the Canadian Construction Association reports that while census data indicates a 9.2% increase in construction workers from 2016 to 2021, bringing the total to 1.3 million, the industry is still dealing with over 93,000 unfilled job openings across the country.

Immigration for labour shortages

One way that employers are filling job openings is by tapping the services of immigrant workers. Canadian employers’ reliance on temporary foreign workers was on full display last year, when the number of employers allowed to hire workers through the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program more than doubled from 2018 to 2023, according to a recent CBC report citing data from Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC).

However, the federal government had said that it is lowering its immigration targets from 2025 to 2027. Ottawa has also tightened the rules around employers’ use of the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program.

"The government will have to make sure that there's still robust pathways, particularly in the healthcare sector, because we could see shortages there otherwise," Mike Moffat, senior director of the Smart Prosperity Institute, a research network based at the University of Ottawa, said in a previous Reuters report.

What is the solution to the labour shortage?

Previously, experts from strategic management consulting firm Boston Consulting Group said that industrial employers can fill job openings by making work attainable, sustainable and rewarding for more people. They can do that by doing the following, they said:

• Think locally, invest locally: Rather than competing for young, urban professionals, winning players will make their businesses the employer of choice in their local communities, intervening earlier in the pipeline to create flow and training individuals who have already made the area their home.
• Unleash the heart of frontline leaders: Most managers want to do right by their people, but few receive the training to provide the empathetic support that can have the most profound effect on employee satisfaction and retention.
• Allow schedules to flex and skills to expand: A lack of flexibility and career advancement opportunities are the most common reasons workers cite for leaving their jobs. But while flex work has become a post-pandemic mainstay in many sectors, industrial companies have been slower to adapt, with many assuming the nature of their business precludes such arrangements.