Effect on Canadian labour market 'might be relatively subtle,' says expert
Job seekers from outside Canada have shown far greater interest in coming to work in the country, according to a recent Indeed report.
Overall, in the third quarter of 2023, 14 per cent of clicks on Canadian job postings on Indeed were made by job seekers from abroad, more than double their six per cent share in mid-2019.
“The surge in foreign interest in Canadian job postings in recent years suggest[s] policy changes have caught the attention of job seekers abroad,” says Brendon Bernard, Indeed senior economist. “Moreover, if the experience in 2022 is any indication, this elevated interest could keep the Canadian population growing quickly in the months ahead. Less clear are the impacts this shift has already had on the labour market.”
By the end of November 2022, Ottawa had processed roughly 4.8 million immigrant applications – nearly twice the 2.5 million processed during the same period in 2021.
In particular, the following countries have led the jump in foreign clicks on postings for jobs in Canada:
|
Countries |
Q3 2023 click share |
Q3 2019 click share |
Change |
|
India |
2.22 per cent |
1.13 per cent |
+1.10 per cent |
|
Pakistan |
0.97 per cent |
0.10 per cent |
+0.87 per cent |
|
Philippines |
0.73 per cent |
0.14 per cent |
+0.59 per cent |
|
Nigeria |
0.53 per cent |
0.10 per cent |
+0.43 per cent |
|
Tunisia |
0.47 per cent |
0.05 per cent |
+0.41 per cent |
|
France |
0.71 per cent |
0.30 per cent |
+0.41 per cent |
|
Morocco |
0.53 per cent |
0.13 per cent |
+0.40 per cent |
|
Algeria |
0.40 per cent |
0.07 per cent |
+0.33 per cent |
Foreign job seekers have shown increased interest in the following occupations:
|
Occupations |
Q3 2023 click share |
Q3 2019 click share |
Change |
|
Agriculture and Forestry |
35 per cent |
9.0 per cent |
+27 per cent |
|
Personal care and home health |
20 per cent |
4.0 per cent |
+16 per cent |
|
Driving |
18 per cent |
4.0 per cent |
+14 per cent |
|
Production and manufacturing |
20 per cent |
6.0 per cent |
+14 per cent |
|
Cleaning and sanitation |
17 per cent |
4.0 per cent |
+13 per cent |
|
Construction |
15 per cent |
4.0 per cent |
+11 per cent |
|
Loading and stocking |
15 per cent |
3.0 per cent |
+11 per cent |
|
Childcare |
15 per cent |
4.0 per cent |
+11 per cent |
Ottawa announced late in May the category-based selection under Express Entry. This year, the federal government is focusing the category-based selection invitations on candidates who have work experience in fields that include agriculture and agri-food.
The effects of the jump in foreign clicks on the Canadian labour market “might be relatively subtle,” says Bernard.
He notes that while the posted wage growth on Indeed has been somewhat faster than average in several of the manual labour-related occupations where foreign clicks have grown most, the gap in pay growth compared to other sectors might have been larger without growing interest from elsewhere.
“Conversely, the impacts of the rising foreign click share could be broad, rather than concentrated in specific segments of the labour market, consistent with the jump in interest across occupations,” he says.
“With no indication that population growth will slow in the near-term, assessing the labour market impacts of these trends will remain one of the key questions facing the Canadian labour market, but with answers illusive, given limited information available to researchers in the Labour Force Survey.”
