Country sees job gains, rising unemployment, slowing wage growth: StatCan
Canada’s labour market delivered a complex picture in November, combining solid employment gains with a rising unemployment rate and signs of cooling wage growth.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey from Statistics Canada, employment increased by 51,000 jobs (+0.2%), largely driven by public sector hiring.
However, the unemployment rate rose sharply to 6.8%, up from 6.5% in October, marking the highest level since January 2017, excluding pandemic years.
“The November Labour Force Survey threw a few curveballs,” said Brendan Bernard, senior economist at Indeed. “Employment growth came in surprisingly hot, actually keeping up with ongoing rapid population growth for just the second time in 2024.”
The gains were concentrated in full-time positions (+54,000), while the employment rate held steady at 60.6%, ending six consecutive months of decline, says Ottawa. Public sector employment accounted for most of the growth, rising by 45,000 (+1.0%). In contrast, private sector employment and self-employment showed little movement.
“Private sector job growth was soft, nearly all the net gains coming from the public sector, while total hours worked edged down,” Bernard noted, pointing out underlying weaknesses despite the headline gains.
“These numbers reflect a labour market in transition.”
The unemployment rate increase to 6.8% came as more Canadians entered the labour force in search of work, says Statistics Canada. The participation rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 65.1%, offsetting earlier declines in September and October.
“Most eyecatching though was a jump in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.5% in October,” Bernard said. “This change occurred despite a steady headline employment rate, but it wasn’t necessarily a sign of new weakness. Rather, the rise of the unemployment rate over the past year had been understating how much the job market had deteriorated, as it occurred alongside declines in the labour force participation rate.”
The higher participation in November reflects more people actively job hunting—a requirement to be classified as unemployed—rather than a major shift in labour market conditions, he said.
“The move doesn’t suggest much of a shift in conditions in November itself, but rather highlights the steady weakening of the labour market in 2024 more generally,” he added.
Average hourly wages rose 4.1% (+$1.40) year-over-year to $35.68 in November, a significant deceleration from the nearly 5% growth rates seen earlier in 2024, says Statistics Canada.
“Hourly earnings grew 4.1% over the past year, a notable step down from the near 5% pace that had been prevailing recently,” Bernard observed. “It had been striking how persistent elevated pay gains remained even as the labour market, and inflation, cooled.”
This slowdown could mark the fading of the post-pandemic wage surge. “A divergence between wage growth and the broader economy can only last for so long,” Bernard noted, suggesting that wage pressures may continue to ease as the labour market cools.
Employment gains were strongest in wholesale and retail trade (+39,000; +1.3%), construction (+18,000; +1.2%), and professional, scientific, and technical services (+17,000; +0.9%), says Ottawa. Manufacturing (-29,000; -1.6%) and transportation and warehousing (-19,000; -1.7%) experienced significant declines, with the latter affected by labour disputes, including port lockouts and the Canada Post strike.
Regionally, Alberta (+24,000; +1.0%) and Quebec (+22,000; +0.5%) led job growth, while Manitoba (+6,600; +0.9%) and Prince Edward Island (+2,700; +2.9%) saw smaller but notable increases. Ontario’s unemployment rate climbed to 7.6%, the highest since May 2014, driven by an influx of job seekers into the labour force.
