'We really can't assume the past is always the best predictor of the future': Canadian HR academic explains why hiring for promise makes sense
Employers may want to take note of a new report with a powerful message about recruiting processes: hiring candidates based on promise rather than proficiency is significantly more effective.
In today’s changing landscape, skills needs evolve faster than traditional hiring systems can keep up. The Gartner report, released last month, found that “employees hired based on promise are 1.9 times more likely to perform effectively than those hired for proficiency.”
The results signal a necessary shift away from résumés and rigid skills requirements, according to Nita Chhinzer, associate professor of leadership and organizational management at the University of Guelph.
“You're bringing them on thinking that what they did in the past is a good predictor of what they're going to be able to accomplish in the future,” she says.
“However, because there's been such a pivot in the skills that we need for work ... we really can't assume the past is always the best predictor of the future.”
Hiring for potential means shifting focus away from narrow technical competencies toward a person’s ability to learn, their motivation, and their problem-solving style. These deeper traits, according to both Gartner and Chhinzer, are becoming more valuable in workplaces transformed by digitalization, AI integration, and emerging business models.
“Hiring for potential means that we're hiring people who have a demonstrated ability to learn, to have a motivation to learn ... who might not have the tasks that we need them to do, but have the right attitude so they approach problems very pragmatically or creatively or in a way that is aligned with what we need them to do in the company.,” Chhinzer explains.
Companies are adopting this theory of recruitment – and have been for some time, Chhinzer says – because there is a growing recognition that important values such as motivation, problem solving and curiosity are not easily taught. However, skills such as data entry can be trained fairly quickly.
“Training is short term,” she says, “and development is long term. You're changing someone's mindset. So we're hiring for potential.”
This concept aligns closely with Gartner’s definition of promise as “a willingness and ability to learn new skills from a minimum foundation.”
In fast-changing industries, it’s simply not feasible to hire only people who already possess every needed skill. The Gartner survey found that internal recruiting often stalls because “51% of managers request recruiters to only focus on recruiting employees with all desired skills.”
That practice restricts the candidate pool and, in today’s market, slows down both hiring and organizational agility.
The Gartner report suggests that one of the biggest obstacles to hiring for potential is difficulty in identifying and measuring it. Chhinzer points out that hiring managers must be open to evaluating the full person, not just the résumé.
“It's up to us now as recruiters, to start thinking about the whole person,” she says, “and then we'll scale them up. We'll train them on the tasks they need.”
One example she gives is a standout hire for a medical practice — someone who previously worked at the front counter of a No Frills grocery store; Chhinzer explains how their leadership potential and ability to coordinate staff made them a successful manager despite not having industry-specific experience.
The Gartner report calls for recruiters to “illustrate what promise looks like for in-demand skills,” which may require moving beyond formal credentials. Chhinzer echoes this, especially for roles such as sales, where personality and mindset often outweigh formal experience.
“For salespeople, it makes a lot of sense to bring on someone who's really good at sports,” she says.
“They're demonstrating that they'll be a team player. They know how to be resilient, they're part of the grind and they're willing to commit.” It’s not the sport or level that matters — it's the commitment to teamwork and continuous development, Chhinzer sayd.
Similarly, volunteering and community involvement reflect values that often translate well in the workplace.
“It's the idea that I volunteered, it's the idea that I'm part of a team. It's the idea that I committed, that I'm willing to build community,” she says.
Chhinzer points out another crucial benefit of hiring for potential: “When we bring someone onto the company, there's a lot of internal movement happening right now.”
Hiring someone for their ambitions and attitudes — not just their ability to perform a single role — allows for long-term growth within the organization, she says.
To support employees hired based on potential, Gartner recommends implementing learning networks that involve not only the manager but also L&D, talent management, and mentors; this model, according to the research, “nearly doubles the impact on skills preparedness versus the 1:1 support approach.”
Chhinzer also recommends using structured tools to evaluate traits that are difficult to teach or assess in interviews. These include risk assessments and cognitive tests: “They have assessments for things like an intelligence score, a risk assessment.”
She also points to tools like Harvard’s implicit bias test to evaluate candidate thinking and cognitive patterns that remain consistent regardless of the environment.
Chhinzer offers a clear set of steps HR professionals can take to put this approach into practice:
These steps align with Gartner’s finding that companies are more successful when they “define simple, foundational role requirements to reach a wider group of candidates.” When HR focuses on core attributes and then trains candidates for specific tasks, internal mobility and long-term performance improve.
According to Gartner, the volume of AI-assisted job applications has made it harder for employers to assess candidates meaningfully, since most resumes now mirror job postings perfectly.
“Now there's no variance in job applications. Everyone's finding ways to highlight how they match,” Chhinzer says. This makes it even more important to look beyond paper qualifications and job posting platforms, she adds.
Hiring for potential is still a factor in “hidden job markets” that are becoming more prominent today, she points out – as recommendations from associates or friends tend to weigh in on those types of qualities.
“So if I'm giving a reference, now, it's less about ‘What were the tasks that they did,’ and more like, ‘How does this person react if there is a crisis?’” Chhinzer says.
“’How do they handle deadlines? Are they responsive in resolving a crisis, or do they escalate it worse?’ Those are the kinds of things that we're seeing when we talk about potential.”
